Good news, bad news on Iran

By now you've likely heard about the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report and its statements on Iran. If you haven't, the short of it is this: the consensus among the U.S. intelligence agencies is that Iran had a nuclear weapons program but in the fall of 2003, about six months after the invasion of Iraq, Iran gave up their direct weapons program. MSNBC had a pretty good article yesterday on a summary, including some nuanced provisions. Key items from the report that MSNBC brings up:

• "Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."
• "We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
• "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU (highly enriched uranium) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame."
• "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so..."
• "We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of it's nuclear weapons program indefinitely..."

While there is good news that Iran decided to end their pursuit of nuclear weaponry right after the U.S. entered Iraq, deposed of the Baathist government, annihilated the Iraqi military, and forced the government either into hiding or prison, we need to keep a close eye on their uranium enrichment program. While we currently do not have to fear an eminent nuclear weapon, the idea of a radical theocratic regime hostile to the U.S. and desiring the eradication of Israel should give every Presidential candidate pause, even Sen. Barack Obama, who somehow thinks this isn't that bad of an option.

Capitol Hill tries to fathom Iran intelligence
Spy agencies can't say whether Tehran will halt nuclear effort indefinitely
MSNBC

WASHINGTON - Members of Congress tried to figure out Tuesday how to respond to the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released Monday which said that "Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program" in 2003.

The previous NIE, in 2005, said Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons."

On one level, the congressional reaction was hurt feelings and puzzlement that the Bush administration hadn't given a heads-up to key players in Congress.

Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and Committee member Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., indicated by their comments that they felt crossed up.

"I was on a show Sunday on CNN and made some comments about Iran which I believed were true and basically are true, but I would have made them more conditional, more qualified had I known there was change coming," Levin told reporters.